過(guò)去四年的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)具有巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治影響
在過(guò)去的幾年里，石油價(jià)格一直處于過(guò)山車(chē)狀態(tài)，從2014年的高峰期開(kāi)始暴跌，這對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)特別是石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)造成了巨大影響。
盡管全球貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)的影響限制了價(jià)格上漲，但由于投資者對(duì)供應(yīng)前景持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，周一石油價(jià)格再次上漲。
全球石油采購(gòu)的主要基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格布倫特原油價(jià)格在早盤(pán)交易中上漲至每桶75.12美元，隨后小幅回落。
過(guò)去兩周石油價(jià)格幾乎不間斷地上漲，“部分原因是美國(guó)和中國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)升溫，而且對(duì)伊朗的制裁迫在眉睫已經(jīng)開(kāi)始限制來(lái)自該國(guó)的石油流動(dòng)”，報(bào)道路透社。
上周，華盛頓與德黑蘭之間日益增長(zhǎng)的外交沖突導(dǎo)致伊朗總統(tǒng)哈�！敼嵬{通過(guò)霍爾木茲海峽封鎖石油運(yùn)輸，切斷了世界上最重要的石油供應(yīng)路線。
今天早些時(shí)候的上漲意味著石油價(jià)格已經(jīng)接近其五年來(lái)的75.43美元的四年高位。今年年初，這一增長(zhǎng)率接近20％，這主要得益于唐納德特朗普承諾將美國(guó)從伊朗核協(xié)議中拉出來(lái)并重新制定對(duì)世界第三大石油出口國(guó)的制裁 - 將于下周一生效。
在特朗普政府施壓降低油價(jià)的壓力下，上個(gè)月石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）投票決定每天增加產(chǎn)量70.8萬(wàn)桶，以保持油價(jià)穩(wěn)定。
為什么2014年石油價(jià)格暴跌？
價(jià)格徘徊在70美元左右，與2014年6月布倫特原油價(jià)格達(dá)到每桶115美元的令人興奮的日子相去甚遠(yuǎn)。
隨后被稱(chēng)為2014年的大油價(jià)，當(dāng)年6月至12月價(jià)格下跌約40％，并持續(xù)下跌，直至2015年初達(dá)到每桶36.05美元的低點(diǎn)。
羅伯特·薩繆爾森（Robert J Samuelson）在華盛頓郵報(bào)上寫(xiě)道，價(jià)格暴跌“主要反映出供應(yīng)過(guò)多需求追逐”。
美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量激增，自2008年以來(lái)每天增加350萬(wàn)桶，恰逢全球需求低于預(yù)期以及巴拉克•奧巴馬（Barack Obama）對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁 - 所有這些都有助于推低價(jià)格。
這是因?yàn)榧词构┬杵胶獾奈⑿∽兓矔?huì)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格的顯著變化。
“適度的盈余和短缺可能引發(fā)令人眼花繚亂的價(jià)格波動(dòng)，因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者的需求 - 在短期內(nèi) - 是僵化的，”薩繆爾森表示，“短缺導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)爭(zhēng)奪; 盈余導(dǎo)致價(jià)格暴跌以清除市場(chǎng)“。
油價(jià)波動(dòng)會(huì)帶來(lái)什么后果？
油價(jià)下跌標(biāo)志著從生產(chǎn)者到消費(fèi)者的大量財(cái)富轉(zhuǎn)移，估計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家愛(ài)德華·亞德尼每年約1.5萬(wàn)億美元。
薩繆爾森在2014年12月寫(xiě)道，“雖然全面影響是模糊的 - 部分是因?yàn)椴磺宄䞍r(jià)格將在何處解決 - 可能的影響包括推動(dòng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢以及包括尼日利亞，委內(nèi)瑞拉在內(nèi)的一些主要出口國(guó)的政治壓力，俄羅斯和伊朗“。
石油價(jià)格暴跌的政治影響比委內(nèi)瑞拉更為嚴(yán)重。
據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，由于缺乏對(duì)石油工業(yè)的投資，該國(guó)的產(chǎn)量自21世紀(jì)初以來(lái)減少了一半，達(dá)到每天150萬(wàn)桶。
加上油價(jià)下跌，尼古拉斯·馬杜羅的社會(huì)主義政府被迫大幅削減公共支出，導(dǎo)致食品和醫(yī)藥等方面的巨大短缺。這反過(guò)來(lái)又引發(fā)了大規(guī)模的公眾騷亂，并使該國(guó)處于內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的邊緣。
在較小程度上，尼日利亞和俄羅斯近年來(lái)經(jīng)歷了類(lèi)似的公共動(dòng)蕩。在這些國(guó)家，過(guò)度依賴(lài)石油收入嚴(yán)重打擊了他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
福布斯的瓜拉夫夏爾馬說(shuō)，持續(xù)的高油價(jià)也可能對(duì)印度蓬勃發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成“重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)” 。
“隨著蓬勃發(fā)展的制造業(yè)，以服務(wù)業(yè)和科技產(chǎn)業(yè)為補(bǔ)充，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)在廉價(jià)油價(jià)的支撐下大幅上漲，布倫特原油在2015 - 16年油價(jià)暴跌期間一度低于每桶30美元的水平，”他寫(xiě)道，“但那時(shí)的原因是一個(gè)依賴(lài)進(jìn)口的國(guó)家占其原油需求的82％。”
惠譽(yù)研究機(jī)構(gòu)印度評(píng)級(jí)認(rèn)為印度經(jīng)濟(jì)具有抵御和吸收油價(jià)沖擊幾個(gè)月的彈性，但如果油價(jià)在兩到三個(gè)月內(nèi)保持高位，它將“對(duì)所有主要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響”如經(jīng)常賬戶，貨幣，通貨膨脹，利率，財(cái)政赤字，GDP增長(zhǎng)和貨幣政策的實(shí)施“。
在更廣泛的全球?qū)用�，也有人�?dān)心過(guò)去六個(gè)月的價(jià)格調(diào)整可能引發(fā)下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
CNBC表示，“對(duì)于任何有市場(chǎng)歷史學(xué)習(xí)的投資者而言，這不應(yīng)該讓人感到意外”，因?yàn)樵谶^(guò)去的五次美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之前，油價(jià)也會(huì)上漲。
未來(lái)該何去何從？
“財(cái)富”雜志表示，歐佩克在未來(lái)的削減中出現(xiàn)分歧，伊朗希望將原油價(jià)格維持在每桶60至65美元的水平，其巨大的區(qū)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手沙特阿拉伯的目標(biāo)價(jià)為80美元。
這應(yīng)該看到價(jià)格在短期內(nèi)穩(wěn)定在70美元左右。
能夠打擊供應(yīng)并抬高價(jià)格的最大中期未知因素包括委內(nèi)瑞拉政局不斷惡化以及美國(guó)再次對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施制裁的影響。
俄羅斯石油部長(zhǎng)亞歷山大諾瓦克認(rèn)為，制裁措施已將油價(jià)推高至每桶5美元至7美元不等。
美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)稱(chēng)，這可能會(huì)影響每天100萬(wàn)桶的原油供應(yīng)量。雖然預(yù)計(jì)包括印度，日本和韓國(guó)在內(nèi)的一些美國(guó)盟友將效仿并切斷伊朗，但如果歐盟和中國(guó)堅(jiān)持協(xié)議并決定不重新實(shí)施制裁，這種影響可能會(huì)受到抑制。
與此同時(shí)，投資者“仍擔(dān)心主要的歐佩克生產(chǎn)國(guó)沙特阿拉伯將增加產(chǎn)量以彌補(bǔ)委內(nèi)瑞拉等國(guó)的損失”，彭博社說(shuō)，“同時(shí)，人們擔(dān)心中美之間正在發(fā)生的貿(mào)易沖突將會(huì)損害經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)并傷害需求“。
原文
The price of oil has been on a roller-coaster ride over the past few years, plummeting from its 2014 peak before recovering – all with huge consequences for the global economy and especially oil-producing states.
The price of oil rose again on Monday as investors remained cautious over the supply outlook, although the fallout from global trade tensions limited price gains.
Brent Crude, the major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide, rose to $75.12 a barrel in early morning trading, before falling back slightly.
The oil price has been rallying almost uninterruptedly for the past two weeks, “in part as trade tensions between the United States and China have heated up, but also as looming sanctions on Iran have already started to curtail flows of oil from the country”, reports Reuters.
A growing diplomatic stand-off between Washington and Tehran last week led Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to threaten a blockade of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the world’s most vital oil supply route.
Today’s early gains mean the price of oil is nearing its four-year high of $75.43, hit briefly in May. This represents an increase of nearly 20% on the start of the year, driven primarily by Donald Trump’s promise to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on the world’s third biggest oil exporter - due to come into effect next Monday.
Amid pressure from the Trump administration to bring down oil prices, last month the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) voted to increase production by an extra 708,000 barrels per day in a bid to keep oil prices steady.
Why did the price of oil plummet in 2014?
With prices hovering around the $70 mark, it is a far cry from the heady days of June 2014 when Brent Crude hit $115 a barrel.
What followed became known as the Great Oil Bust of 2014, when prices dropped roughly 40% between June and December of that year, and continued to fall until they hit a low of just $36.05 a barrel in early 2015.
Robert J Samuelson writing in the Washington Post said the price collapse “mainly reflects too much supply chasing too little demand”.
Surging US shale oil production, which had increased by 3.5 million barrels a day from 2008, coincided with lower-than-expected global demand and the lifting of US economic sanctions against Iran by Barack Obama – all contributing to pushing down prices.
This is because even small shifts in the supply-demand balance can result in significant price changes.
“Modest surpluses and shortages can trigger dizzying price swings, because consumers’ needs - in the short run - are rigid,” said Samuelson, while “shortages cause a scramble for supply; surpluses produce price plunges to clear the market”.
What are the consequences of oil price fluctuations?
Declines in oil prices signal a massive transfer of wealth from producers to consumers, estimated at about $1.5trn annually by economist Edward Yardeni.
Writing in December 2014, Samuelson said that “although the full implications are hazy - in part because it’s unclear where prices will settle - likely effects include a boost to the sluggish global economic recovery and political strains for some major exporters, including Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia and Iran”.
Nowhere has the political impact of plummeting oil prices been more acute than in Venezuela.
According to Reuters, the country’s output has halved since the early 2000s to 1.5 million barrels per day, hit by a lack of investment in the oil industry.
Combined with falling oil prices, the socialist government of Nicolas Maduro has been forced to dramatically cut public spending, leading to huge shortages in the likes of food and medicine. This in turn has provoked mass public unrest and brought the country to the brink of civil war.
To a lesser extent, Nigeria and Russia have experienced a similar level of public upheaval in recent years. In these countries, an over-reliance on oil revenue has hit their economies hard.
Continued high oil prices could also constitute a “major risk” to India’s burgeoning economy, says Guarav Sharma in Forbes.
“With its booming manufacturing industries, supplemented by services and technology industries, the Indian economy swelled on the back of cheap oil prices with Brent posting sub-$30 per barrel levels at one point during the recent oil price slump of 2015-16,” he writes, “but that was then for a country reliant on imports for 82% of its crude oil needs.”
Fitch-owned research outfit India Ratings opined that the Indian economy has the resilience to withstand and absorb the oil price shocks for a few months, but if oil prices remain high beyond two to three months, it will “adversely impact all the major macroeconomic variables such as current account, currency, inflation, interest rate, fiscal deficit, GDP growth and conduct of monetary policy”.
On a wider global level there are also concerns the price correction of the past six months could spark the next economic downturn.
CNBC says “this should not come as a surprise for any investor who is a student of market history” given the last five US recessions were also preceded by a rise in oil prices.
What does the future hold?
Opec appears split on future cuts, says Fortune, with Iran wanting to see crude prices held at $60-$65 a barrel and its great regional rival, Saudi Arabia, aiming for $80.
This should see prices stabilise in the short-term around the $70 mark.
The biggest medium-term unknowns which could hit supply and drive up prices include the deteriorating political situation in Venezuela and the impact of renewed US sanctions on Iran.
Russia’s oil minister Alexander Novak believes that the sanctions have already pushed up oil prices by anywhere from $5 to $7 per barrel.
CNN Money says this could affect as many as one million barrels per day of crude supply. Although some American allies, including India, Japan and South Korea, are expected to follow suit and cut off Iran, the effect could be tempered if the EU and China stick to the agreement and decide not to reimpose sanctions.
Investors, meanwhile, “remain concerned that key Opec producer Saudi Arabia will increase output to make up for losses from countries such as Venezuela”, says Bloomberg, while “the same time, there are fears that ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China will damage economic activity and hurt demand”.
（本文轉(zhuǎn)自Jean-Sebastien Evrard，如有版權(quán)問(wèn)題，請(qǐng)聯(lián)系小編）
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